Sunday December 27, 2020 – Farwell 2020 – It has been a long time since my last blog post but as the end of 2020 looms I thought it might be the time to review the past year. There has been two things that have dominated the news in 2020, the COVID-19 Pandemic and the election in November which became a total fiasco as Trump refuses to concede. It hasn't all been bad news though, electric vehicles did quite well this year.

While most vehicle sales tanked the sales of electric cars showed much lower declines. The political climate has changed too as more and more countries have set out timelines for a complete ban on the sale of internal combustion engines. Most manufacturers have gotten onboard and have started to expand the range of EVs. There are a few holdouts, most notably Toyota.

Akio Toyoda, President of Toyota came up with the line that Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if they switched to electric cars, and urged the Japanese government to keep gas-powered cars. It appears that their views fell on deaf ears as the Japanese government announced plans to end the sale of gas-powered cars by 2035.

Toyota has been a big proponent of fuel cell powered vehicles and has just released its next generation Mirai which is getting good reviews. It will struggle to get market share though due to high costs and lack of fueling infrastructure. while the available infrastructure has expended in 2020, drivers of fuel cell vehicles have experienced several problems with fuel supply issues as fuel stations in California and Nevada ran out of hydrogen.

Battery electric vehicles have continued to see major developments. Battery costs have continued to fall and this month a Chinese company announced that it had hit the magic number of $100 per KWhr. $100 per KWhr is the number where the initial cost of an EV becomes competitive with that of ICE vehicles. Several companies have also been working on solid state batteries which promised to be a game changer with higher power density, longer life, and lower cost. Even Toyota has said it plans to release an EV with solid state batteries in 2021.

Tesla continued to lead the way in electric vehicles finally being able to show profitability quarter after quarter. Part of the reason for this was the release in March 2020 of the model Y and the start of production in the Shanghai giga-factory. Tesla also has three vehicles that are set to start production in the future, the second generation Roadster, the Cybertruck, and the Tesla Semi-truck. So far there are no dates set for the release of these vehicles but we may see one or more of them hitting the streets in 2021.

Several other companies, especially European companies, are investing large amounts in shifting to elecric vehicle production. VW in particular has already released cars under both the Audi brand and their new ID brand. The ID3 is already selling well in Europe and the ID4 is expected to arrive in the US early next year.

Even Ford, who was one of the companies that just did compliance EVs, has started boosting development of Electric vehices. The Mustang Mach-e has just started appearing in Ford Dealerships and is getting great buzz and lots of orders. They also have an all electric version of their F-150 truck which should see sales starting some time next year. In the words of my step son "This is going to be a game changer". He is a big Ford fan and he said that he would consider going back to an F-150 if they offered an electric version. My wife, also a big Ford fan, thinks that the Mach-e should be our next car, and for now I can't argue about that.

Volvo is also headed toward electric cars and like many other companies have created a new brand, Polestar. They are implementing a sales strategy similar to Tesla's setting up salons around the company had selling direct to the public. They now have several open, including one in Santa Monica, which is the first to serve LA. It is pretty much opposite where Tesla set up it's first salon.

GM has played things a little closer to their chest but have stated that they plan to make Cadillac an EV only brand. They also started taking orders for an electric version of the Hummer which seems to be selling well and should start hitting the streets next year. There is also rumors of a first BEV for the Cadillac brand showing up next year.

There are a few other startups that are beginning to show up and some appear to be getting ready to begin series production. Rivian has both an SUV and a truck that they should begin delivery of next year, and have also taken a large order from Amazon for electric delivery vehicles. Bollinger is getting ready for production but their vehicles are very expensive and probably will never be more that a niche product.

The three wheeler space has also continued to grow. Arcimoto began deliveries of their electric FUV earlier this year and sales appear to be going well. The ElectraMeccanica Solo went on sale in the US in October. A name from the past, Aptera, has also resurfaced. Aptera have shown a revised version of their electric car that is covered with solar cells. They claim a range of 1,000 miles between charges and say that in the right situation it may never need to be charged. They are currently accepting deposits.

I think just about everyone will be happy to see then end of 2020 and first half of 2021 is not going to be much better, but with vacines for COVID-19 now available there is a good chance we can get back to some degree of normality in the second half of 2021. I look forward to see what new vehicles will hit dealerships in 2021, I think it will be an exciting year for EV lovers.

Sunday October 4, 2020 – Next Tesla - Tesla has been slowly adding to its model line-up over the years, going from the no longer built Roadster to the Model S, then Model X, then the model 3 and finally the model Y. Typically they gave announced one model at a time. Now Tesla has three electric prototypes that all look ready for production, so which one will be the next Tesla?

First came the Tesla Semi announcement on December 14, 2017, followed by the new Roadster later the same day.  On November 21, 2019 they also took the covers off the Cybertruck. Elon Musk has also hinted that Tesla has is working on a $25,000 passenger vehicle.

There is no indication right now of when these might see the light of day and begin production. The Cybertruck was recently photographed on the production line at the Tesla factory and there has been speculation that this may be a prelude to beginning production. Most likely it was Tesla doing some modifications to the prototype. According to comments made by Elon Musk at the Tesla battery day event that they have over 600,000 orders for the Cybertruck.

The Semi has also been gaining orders too, including at total of 130 on order from Walmart Canada. Tesla says they have over 2,000 semi trucks have been order. They have been doing some serious testing with at least two Semis being used to deliver vehicles to their distribution centers. The latest word is that production will begin later this year but no timeframe has been announce.

The Tesla roadster was also supposed to go into production this year but again Tesla has been tight lipped about when it expects to be handing them over to paying customers. The Roadster is quite expensive with the founder series priced at $250,000. The Roadster is not going to be a high volume car but more of a halo car. It has been rumored that Tesla will take the car to the Nürburgring after Porsche set a record for 4 door sedans there recently. Tesla has already broken the Taycan's record with the Model S "Plaid".

From Tesla's standpoint I would expect to see the Cybertruck go on sale first, especially since there are quit a few electric pick-ups in the works right now and if Tesla doesn't jump into the lead right now it could end up with the Ford F series electric on Rivian dominating the pick-up truck market.

From my point of view I would, of course like Tesla to get the $25,000 car, a Tesla I could afford, into production.  Since that is not likely to happen for a while my second choice would be to start seeing the semi on the road. Big diesel trucks are some of the worst sources of air pollution and get those replaced by electric trucks would be a big step in the right direction.

Sunday July 26, 2020 – Energy Storage – I read all the time about how renewable energy, more specifically Solar and Wins won't work because they are too intermittent  This is usually from people who are either pro fossil fuel or pro Nuclear.  It reminds me of Clark's first law, "When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong".

This totally sums up the situation with renewable energy.  They seem to forget that energy can be stored and used later.  This can be done with Pump Storage like the Helms Pump Storage Plant which began operations in 1984.  Another method that has been proposed is using compressed air to store the energy.  In recent times there as been a move towards battery storage.

Tesla, which has a division that produces solar electric systems introduced a battery storage system called the Power Wall which allows people to power there house off grid by storing energy in the day and using it at night.  This is not a new concept, data centers have been using battery backup to keep running when the power goes out for many years. 

Recently there has been a move toward grid storage where energy that is in excess of demand is stored and delivered when demand exceeds supply. Tesla, for example, has released it's Megapack for grid level storage.  The Megapack can store 3MHr of electricity and comes with a 1.5 MW inverter.  The systems can be linked together to provide true grid level storage. 

The system is best known for providing backup for a large solar farm in Hornsdale Australia.  Since it was installed it has provided revenue of about $4 million per quarter and increased profits. It has also been credited with helping to stabilize what had been an unreliable grid system. 

There are now two large scale projects underway here in the USA, one in California and one in Nevada.

The one in California is a 100MW, 400MWh system that is being built to support a solar array.  It will be used as a replacement for a proposed gas fired Peaker plant.  A Peaker plant is designed to provide electricity in times when the demand exceeds grid capacity.  These plants tend be pretty dirty from the point of view of air pollution.  The battery storage will be much cleaner and can also provide energy to the grid instantaneously.

The project in Nevada is being done by Switch Data Centers based in Los Vegas.  They are constructing a 555 MW solar array that will be used to power Switch's data center.  To provide uninterrupted power the system will be backed up with an 800MW battery system. 

It is clear that we are not only going towards renewable energy, we are also finding ways to store excess energy for when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow.

Sunday May 31, 2020 – Charging on the GO – I have to admit that I don't get on Twitter as much as I should these days but last week I found time to check out my feed and found a link to an interesting article on a company that is going to launch a new way to charge. 

SparkCharge is currently testing a new portable charger that is actually a battery pack and charger combo.  This can to taken to any location so you don't have to worry about finding an open working charger at your destination. 

Currently tests are being conducted in Los Angeles and San Francisco where tow trucks will be able to go to a stranded EV driver and instead of the driver being towed to a location where they can charge, the tow truck driver will use a module that uses Lithium Ion batteries to charge the car.  While this is an initial use for their charger system the company envisions being able to meet someone at any point on their trip and give the car a boost charge to get them to their destination.

Their chargers are in a modular form with each battery offering about 3,5 KWh of storage.  Modules can be stacked on top or each other to increase the capacity if needed.  On the top of modules sits the charger unit which can support 110V, 220V, and 20 KW DC Fast charging.  Right now their DC model only supports CHAdeMO but will eventually support CCS and Tesla. 

Each battery module will give about 14-15 miles of range.  They are built with the 18650 cylindrical cell batteries like those used in the Tesla Model S.  SparkCharge rate these at 1,000 cycles although Tesla has seen better performance with these batteries.  It should be noted that as the batteries begin to loose capacity the range from one module with also decrease.  Having said that, it is getting to the point, at least here in Southern California, that you can find a charger in many areas within 10 miles.  Chargers are not as plentiful in other areas of the country.

SparkCharge is not the first to offer emergency charging on the road.  AAA has been offering a service that will recharge EVs that have run out of charge,  In this case they tested a variety of systems including a modular battery system similar to the one produced by SparkCharge.  They also have systems that charge using Generators powered by alternative fuel choices such as bio-diesel.  While AAA offers charging for those that have run out of battery power, it does not provide charging services like those that SparkCharge a looking to put in place for those that just need a regular charge.  

Lets face it, people run out of gas every day but the solution is simple, they call a tow truck which brings them a gallon of gas in a can  The service offered by SparkCharge will fill that need for EV Drivers.  I don't know how much this service will cost but I imagine it won't be cheap.  It will fill a nice niche for drivers that come up short on electrons but may be too expensive for the kind of charging on the go that SparkCharge are envisioning.  This will not stop the need for a robust charging network as more EVs begin to hit the streets. 

Sunday May 24, 2020 – VW's Agency Approach - If you want to buy and electric vehicle it is not uncommon to have the sales person at the dealership try to talk you into a gas car. VW just announced it is trying an alternative approach.

Those of us that have been in the EV movement for some time know all about this. When I tried to lease an EV1 (no sales in those days, only lease) I was turned away by GM, not because I wasn't capable of paying the lease, it was all about charging infrastructure back then. Today it is most likely that the sales person knows very little about EVs, probably doesn't get as much commission when they sell one, and may be urged to switch customers by the dealership since EVs require a lot less maintenance that a gas car which means less revenue for the service department.

VW is the first major automaker to recognize this issue and when the Id series of cars begins shipping they will be taking a different approach which will be similar to how Tesla sells cars.

Customers will no longer go into the dealership to by a car but will order direct from VW. They will then assign their preferred dealer who will will act as an agent. They dealership will no longer be responsible for sales but will give test drives, ensure the sale is properly documented, and the car delivered to the customer.

So far this program is only being launched in Germany but it may also migrate to other European countries if it proves to be successful. The VW ID range of vehicles is not being sold in the US now but they are supposed to start manufacturing the ID Crozz here in the US for sale towards the end of this year. The car will probably be sold as the ID.4 as a 2021 model. The ID.4 will be a mid-sized all electric SUV that VW claim will be able to go about 310 miles on a charge. This range was probably calculated on the European test cycle and I expect the EPA estimate to come in around 260 miles - still pretty good.

Here in the US things may be a little different as dealerships try to upsell on things like extended warranty and service plans. Still, it is not a bad way to buy a car and it can be customized how you want it. VW may actually have come up with a way to compete with Tesla and if the price is right it might be serious competition for the Model Y.

Sunday May 3, 2020 – Planet of the Humans – On Saturday I had the misfortune of watching the latest documentary from producer Michael Moore, "Planet of the Humans".  The movie is slow and boring and contains more factual errors than you can shake a stick at.  Given Moore's reputation this film has the distinct possibility of doing for the fossil fuel industry what "Who Killed the Electric Car" did for EVs.

The whole premise of the movie appears to be that the environmental movement has sold out to billionaires and is leading the world down the wrong path to solve global warming.  One of my biggest beefs with this movie is they don't come up with an alternative path.  Their take on things is that we can't solve the issue so lets just keep business as usual until the mass extinction wipes most of us out which, will solve the real problem, overpopulation.

The main target of the movie was biofuels and anyone who was advocating for them.  The seemed to have a big concern with anything that used natural gas as part of the production process and implied that vast amounts of forest was being cut down to provide the wood chips for biofuel based on them using small amounts of natural gas.

It also has a beef against Sir Richard Branson because of his involvement with biofuels.  Sir Richard has been working with a company in the UK to create a jet fuel of Virgin that will provide up to half of the airline's fuel for flights out of the UK.  Now I am not a big fan of biofuels especially if you use perfectly good farmland to grow ingredients for fuel instead of food products.  However, air travel is one of the most carbon intensive forms of travel and I think we are going to have to begin moving to biofuels until we can come up with a better solution.

As for cutting down trees to fire wood burning generation, it is not OK to just cut down trees and then use the cleared area for other things liike housing.  It is OK when you replant or let the forest regrow.  Trees take about 10 years to reach maturity and it is during this first 10 years that they absorb the most CO2.  If you have a ten year rotation in cutting down trees then letting them regrow the system becomes sustainable.  If the trees are being removed in a non-sustainable way they yes, this is a problem.

It is when they start to talk about electric cars and alternative sources of energy that they really show that they started to look like a film from Shell, or Exxon.  They misrepresented facts, recycled long debunked arguments against EVs, and used information from 2012 and earlier..  

They briefly mentioned hydrogen and they asked their expert where the hydrogen comes from and her replied Natural Gas, Oil, or Coal.  While it is possible to get hydrogen from coal I am not aware of anyone who is doing this on a large scale.  Most hydrogen is produced from Natural Gas right now bur there are places that are using other processes fright now.  What they failed to mention that you can use solar to generate electricity to separate hydrogen and oxygen from water by the process of electrolysis.  The hydrogen can be stored and used as back-up power when the sun isn't shining.

On EVs they Showed a clip from the unveiling of the Chevy Volt back in 2010.  They asked the lady that was presenting about the energy mix in Michigan and she said she thought it was 30% renewable.  They then interviewed someone who said that the state was pretty close to 100% coal - neither was right.  It turns out that about 19% of its energy was generated from Nuclear reactors and there was also a small amount of natural gas.  Like everyone else they are dumping coal for natural gas and wind power.

They also brought out the often debunked idea that because the building of EVs is so energy intensive they produce more CO2 that the standard car.  various studies have shown that an EV fueled by coal power only emits about 68% of the CO2 emitted by an ICE car when you do a complete cradle to grave analysis.

Solar was also panned because you have to mine the raw materials and it takes high heat to make the chips used in solar panels.  Of course there was an emission here, yes you have to mine quartz to get the raw materials, and yes it takes quite a lot of energy to produce them but that doesn't mean you can't get that energy from renewable energy.  They also had an interview which appeared to be from a long time ago.  The person interviewed said that the life of a solar panel was 10 years, while modern solar panels last for about 30 years.

They also took a shot at power stations that use mirrors to focus a light on boilers to generate steam to run turbines.  Some of these stations use natural gas to bring the salts they use to store the heat up to operating temperature before the sun comes up.  They went to Daggett, CA which was the site of the first thermal solar plants.  They seemed really surprised when all they found was an empty stretch of desert.  I don't know why they would be surprised since this was an experimental station the was decommissioned in 2009.

The new plant is a few miles away just outside Ivanpah, CA. They took issue with the fact that the plant used natural gas and also showed pictures of broken mirrors and suggested that the plant was running at very low capacity.  If it was 2014 they would be right, it did have some teething problems.  It is also true that the facility has never reached it's advertised capacity of 940,000 MWh, but it is currenlty producing 84.7% of it rated capacity which comes out to 653,122 MWh.

They also took a shot at Tesla.  They showed a picture of the Giga-factory and said that Elon Musk had promised that the factory would be run on renewable energy.  They showed a picture of the factory but it was an old picture from before they started putting solar panels on the roof.  I think they are going pretty slowly at building out the solar array but right now they have bigger fish to fry trying to get into profitability and stay there. 

besides, you can buy renewable energy from you electricity provider - didn't these guys know that?.

This documentary looked more like a conspiracy theory than a meaningful documentary, the rich have taken over the green movement.  Trouble is they had no answers except that humans should die out.  For someone who claims to be an environmentalist the director, Jeff Gibbs, has served up some great propaganda for the fossil fuel industry.  This film is getting a lot of views and given that it has Michael Moore behind it I am sure that plenty of people are going to change their minds on our ability to fight global warming - don't be one of those people.

Sunday April 26, 2020 – Loss of Two Climate Scientists - This month we lost two prominent Climate Scientists both of who made significant contributions over the years. Yet one lost his way and became a leading climate denier while the other remained a prominent voice in the call for action on global warming.

On April 6 Fred Singer, one of a small group of scientists who continue to claim that the world is not warming and if it is then this is a good thing, died at the age of 95. He was born in Austria in 1924. He moved to the US in the 1940s and served in the US Navy during WWII. After leaving the Navy he worked on early satellite development and his work served as a basis for the climate satellites in use today.

In recent years he was most noted for two things. The first was his denial that second hand smoke could be a cause for cancer and more recently he was one of a small number of scientists who denied that CO2 was causing the Earth's the climate to warm.

His early work, even when dealing with the environment was pretty good but at some point he let his political views, as a libertarian and anti-communist, impact his work. He began to challenge established scientific views on a wide variety of topics. He would often dismiss studies such as those that indicated that second hand smoke could lead to cancer as "junk science". In 2011 he spoke at Colorado State University saying “Nothing you do will have any effect on the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere. Even if it did have an effect, it won’t affect the planet.”, contrary to what the vast majority of climate scientists were saying.

In later life he was often accused of cherry picking data to sell his point and eventually most peer reviewed publications stopped accepting his work. He continued as a prominent voice against climate change under organizations like Heartland Institute until his death.

April 20th saw the death of John Houghton at age 88 from complications from covid-19. Houghton was a Welsh atmospheric physicist who was one of the recipients of the 2007 Nobel peace prize as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). That year the prize was shared between the IPCC and Al Gore. He was knighted in 1991 for his contribution to science.

In the 1960s he began work in climate science by studying the possible impact on the atmosphere of fallout from a nuclear war. Later he became a leading voice in warning about the impact that climate change could have on the environment. In 1988 he Joined the IPCC and, as lead author on the first three IPPC reports on climate change, led the charge to warm people of the potential disaster the climate change could cause.

He was also known from blending scientific work with his deep faith as an Evangelical Christian.

The month we lost two notable climate scientists, one who worked hard to warn the world of the peril ahead caused by CO2 released when burning fossil fuels, and the other who did everything he could to shed doubt on the work of scientists, especially climate scientists. For me, only John Houghton will be badly missed.

Sunday April 5, 2020 – Why Electric? – I have been staying home because of the "shelter in place" orders issued by both the Mayor of Los Angeles and the Governor of California, but sometimes you just have to venture outside.  It was one of those days and my wife and I did a food run to deliver some food to my step daughter and her family.

When we go out together we almost always take the Plug-in Prius rather than my wife's Ford Escape.  While the Ford has the eco-boost engine it gets nowhere near the gas mileage of the Prius.  I did notice that I would need gas as I hadn't filled up in about a month so I prepared before I left home.

When most people think about gas cars they think CO2.  Few people think about the risks of just filling your tank.  Gas pumps are some of the dirtiest things you touch and when you press buttons or squeeze the handle on the gas pump, who knows who last used it, or the person before that etc.  Germs, including the COVID-19 virus, can survive on the handle of a gas pump for up to 72 hours.  I made sure I wore latex gloves and used hand sanitizer before touching anything in the car. 

When I got back home I plugged in my car and remember thinking that I was the only person who ever touches my charger.  Of course that's not to say you wouldn't have a similar problem using a public charger but those tend to get a lot less uses, perhaps two or three times per day rather than 6-10 times per hour. 

We all know that burning gas releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere but it also generates a lot more nasty thing in there too.  Things like oxides of nitrogen, sulfur, fine particulates, carbon monoxide, and in some cases even formaldehyde.  All this stuff reacts together with volatile organic compounds in the air to create smog.  Smog has been shown to increase the incidence of asthma, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis.  According to the American Lung Association, high levels of smog also leads to reduced lung capacity in children and a greater incidence of asthma. 

With the shelter in place order people are not driving much anymore and this is very apparent here in Los Angeles where we can see a marked improvement in air quality.  As smog reduces we see more blue sky, the buildings in downtown LA suddenly become visible and we can even see the mountains to the north and east of the city  Driving electric cars powered by renewable energy could make this the norm in the future.

To sum-up, driving electric cars means less exposure to virus and bacteria, better lung function for the children, Less lung and heart disease, and clear skies.  Why wouldn't we do it?.

Sunday March 22, 2020 – WA to Join ZEV Mandate – There is the old cliché that every cloud has a silver lining.  I am getting a sense that this may be true as I sit writing this blog at the counter in the kitchen watching puffy clouds and bright blue sky through the window. 

LA is in lockdown because of the COVID-19 outbreak so I have been working from home and only going out when I need to go the the pharmacy or buy groceries.  Many people here in LA are in the same boat and this has meant one thing to Los Angeles, much fewer cars on the road.  I began to notice this when one of my nieces posted a map of the LA Freeway system showing all the freeways as green meaning no significant slowdowns anywhere in the greater Los Angeles area, something none of us have ever seen before.  A couple of days later she posted a picture of a clear blue the sky.  This can only mean one thing, a combination of rain last week and fewer auto emissions, have made the air in the LA basin the cleanest it has been in decades. 

A few days ago I got an email from Plug-in America that stated that Washington State had just passed SB 5811.  This legislation, which has passed both the House and Senate, would make Washington State the 11th state to adopt the California ZEV mandate.  It is currently awaiting the Governor's signature but governor Jay Inslee is expected to sign it.

What this bill will do is to require vehicle manufacturers to sell Zero Emission Vehicles in the state.  Each automaker will be require that 5% of all light duty vehicles is sells will be ZEV or PHEV.  This requirement will increase to 8% by 2025.  Those that don't sell enough vehicles will need to buy credits from those, such as Tesla, that sell more than they are required to.

This should give the auto buyers in the state additional options as manufacturers that normally sell only in ZEV state will make their models available in Washington Sate.  Given that many of the auto makers, while saying that they must move to plug-in vehicles, have opposed such mandates, I'm not sure how much more choice there will wind up being.  For example Hyundai and Kia technically sell in all states but in none ZEV states the cars must be special ordered and from what I heard if you go into most dealerships outside the ZEV states the salesmen will scratch is head and pretend that they don't know what you are talking about.

The ZEV mandate was developed in California shortly after GM showed the Impact (EV1 concept) at the LA auto show.  It has since been adopted by Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont.  Arizona also adopted the ZEV mandate but in a huge step backwards Governor Ian Brewer had the State drop out shortly after he took office in 2012.  

My experience here in LA shows quite clearly that eliminating all the nasty stuff coming out of the exhaust of cars and trucks will make the air cleaner and ultimately the people will be healthier.  Other states need to wake up and get with the program if we are to truly address global warming.  The adoption of the ZEV mandate in a majority of states would greatly increase the uptake of electric vehicles. 

Sunday March 8, 2020 – When is the Tipping Point for EVs? - I just read an article published on Oilprice.com explaining why 2030 would not be the tipping point for electric vehicle sales.  I began to think about this and thought I would set down my thoughts.

The first thing that I had to do was to decide what would be regarded as the tipping point for EV sales, was it the time when Sales began to take off? Was it the time that EVs outsold gas vehicles? or was it the time when almost all vehicle sales were electric?  The truth is that there are several tipping points, one of which has passed already, the time when EVs changed from a curiosity to being regarded pretty much as a normal car.

The second tipping point is when people realize that electric cars are just plain better than gas cars so more people buy them and EVs outsell gas cars.  This is the criteria I am going to discuss today,  The final criteria, where almost all sales are EV is not really and tipping point but the stage where we have reached the goal of replacing gas by electric.

The other uncertainty is how we classify plug-in hybrids.  With limited EV range the plug-in hybrid will still do a portion of it's driving being powered by gas but as battery technology has improved I am seeing a shift from plug-in hybrids to electric.

Some European countries are mandating that all new car sales will be electric by 2030.  This is having a huge impact as the European car makers are having to switch over to electric cars if they want to remain in business.  In the end though it is having cars that people want to buy available on dealer lots that will make the difference.

The biggest problem right now with electric car sales is that these cars are often not available in large quantities.  In some cases cars are available in only a small number of States that follow the California ZEV mandate, or have to be special ordered if you want one of these cars and live outside these states.  Dealers are often a big roadblock to selling EVs as they require a lot less maintenance cutting into dealer profits.  This is starting to change and there are some new models in the offing that may have a huge impact on sales.

The big one is the imminent introduction of the Tesla Model Y.  The model Y is going to make available a midsized crossover with a range of 230 miles for the standard model and 315 miles for the long range model.  Even without incentives I expect the model Y to outsell the model 3 which already accounts for close to 50% of all plug-in vehicles sold in America.  In terms of midsized crossovers the other car to watch is the Ford Mustang Mach-e which I also expect to sell well, though not in the sort of numbers I expect to see from the Model Y. 

Ford may also find a growing market when it releases the electric version of its best selling vehicle, the F150 pickup truck.  Ford say that an all electric version should be available in 2022.  Ford isn't the only company planning an electric pickup.  Tesla has already announced their Cybertruck which has impressive performance and range numbers, and there are also trucks coming from GM based on the Hummer, and several startups including Rivian who has the financial backing to get their R1T pickup into volume production.

The other thing that will end up impacting vehicle sales will be rise of autonomous vehicles.  While learning to drive was a right of passage for my generation the younger people today tend to put off learning to drive for longer and make use of ridesharing services like Uber and Lyft.  I expect this trend to increase as these ridesharing services move to autonomous vehicles, which are mostly being built on EV platforms.

While I didn't read the study that the article was based on as it was behind a pay wall, I did note that one of the issues keeping the sale of gas cars going was the fact that as less gas was consumed the price would fall and keep gas cars cost competitive.  However, it should be noted that most of the cheap oil has already been extracted so the oil price is not going to fall below the cost of extraction limiting how cheap oil products can get.  Pricing carbon and removing big subsidies from oil companies will also have an impact.

Unless there is a major change here in the US that pushes to reduce carbon output, I too don't expect EV sales to overtake gas car sales in 2030, but I do expect them to reach this milestone before 2035, not 2040 as predicted in the Oilprice article.  If the US finally gets serious about the need to wean ourselves off oil then the 2030 date is quite doable.

Sunday February 16, 2020 – One Trillion Trees – In late January world leaders gathered in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum.  The biggest surprise of the meeting was that President Trump acknowledged that the world was warming and pledged the US will join an effort to plant one trillion trees.

The Good - Planting one trillion trees is a good way to help slow down global warming.

The Bad - Planting one trillion trees is not going to stop global warming, only put off the worst effects for a few years.

The Ugly - While President Trump included planting one trillion trees in his State of the Union address on February 5, he omitted any mention of this in his 2021 budget.  This doesn't necessarily mean no action is going to be taken as Congressman Bruce Westerman (R-AK) has already introduced a bill that will plant one trillion trees worldwide by 2050.

This looks like a good start and I hope that this will lead to a bipartisan effort to push this bill though.  However, in his statement Congressman Westerman appears to be more interested in providing more profit for the logging industry than actually address climate change.  He said  “The legislation will increase our logging output, rightfully recognize the carbon neutrality of biomass, and provide a commonsense solution to carbon in the atmosphere without needlessly driving up the cost of energy."

We all know that planting trees is good for the environment but how much of an impact does it really make.  The amount of carbon dioxide a tree sequesters is dependent on many variables but a average of about 50lbs per year is what we expect.  The tree will continue to absorb at this rate until it reaches maturity, which usually takes about 10 years, after which the amount of absorption greatly diminishes.

Let's put a little bit of context.  Burning a gallon of gas produces about 19.6lbs of CO2 so if you plant a tree in your garden then the 50lbs of CO2 it absorbs each year will cover the CO2 produced by burning about two and a half gallons of gas.  If you have a small sized SUV like a Ford Escape and fill up each week with about 10 gallons of gas, you are going to have to plant 4 trees per week just to keep up with the CO2 you are producing  The good news is that these Trees will offset that week's gas consumption for the next 10 years after which carbon sequestration will begin to diminish.  Hopefully fuel economy will have improved to the point where the trees will still absorb enough CO2 to cover the fuel burned after the initial 10 year period, but we are still talking about planting 208 trees to offset the CO2 produced by a single car. 

There are 253 million cars and trucks on US roads and they have an average fuel economy of 25.9 mpg.  If they average 15,000 miles per year the number of trees needed to offset the annual CO2 production would be about 2 trillion so clearly planting a trillion trees is not going to cut it.

There are other issues too.  Forest fires can release large volumes of CO2 as we saw in the California and Australia last year. While trees are long lived they eventually die and decompose which also releases CO2 and Methane.  This decomposition can take years so the amount of CO2 released is much less than in a fire but eventually most of the CO2 is being put back into the atmosphere.  This can also be reduced by cutting down mature trees and turning the wood into lumber that can be used in construction etc.  The cut area can then be replanted and get the benefit of greater CO2 absorption from immature trees.

The other problem is where to we put the trees.  Much of the space needed has already been cleared and turned in arable land and with a rapidly growing world population we are not going to be able to revert it back to forest without risking extensive food shortages.  We also need to keep in mind that most trees are dark in color, meaning they are going to absorb heat coming in from the sun.  If we plant green trees on what is currently a light background, we may actually cause more problems than we solve because heat is being absorbed instead of being reflected back into space.

I'm not against planting trees, it is something we need to do right now, I am just concerned that the planting of a trillion trees will be considered enough to stop global warming.  I also worry that the Trump administration will not follow through on their pledge, or will plant some trees but not enough.  While planting trees is a good idea we need to stop using fossil fuels if we are to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

Sunday January 26, 2020 – Attribution Science - With the wildfires in Australia still burning deniers are already starting to scoff at the idea that some how these wildfires were the result of global warming.  In a way they are correct, the wildfires were not started by global warming.

There are multiple causes for the start of the wildfires.  Some were started by lightning strikes while others were possibly started by arsonists, and still others were no doubt started by accident.  The cause of the fires are not the only thing we need to consider though.  We also have to consider the severity of the fires and how that severity was impacted by a warming planet.

The science behind this is called attribution and what it does is to apportion the blame for the severity of the event.  Australia has bush fires every year but his year was extraordinary burning an area greater than the state of West Virginia.  The question to ask is not what started the fires but how much worse were they than if global warming had not happened.  It all boils down to a matter of percentages.

Scientists are busy working on how much worse the Australian wildfires were because of climate change but there have been plenty of other catastrophic events in recent years where attribution science has been applied to determine how much worse the even was made due to the effects of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere.

Attribution studies look at the past occurrence of similar events and comes up with a probability that the event will occur.  For example if a category 5 hurricane hits an area on average once every 100 years the probability that it will hit in any given year is 1%.  Now, if the history is split into two periods, one before global warming became significant and one after and the frequency of a given event is larger or smaller there is a good chance that the difference was attributable to human caused warming.

Once the frequency of an event is shown to have increased or decreased the scientists can then use a computer model to see what the difference would have been if the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has stayed constant or increased to current levels.  The difference can then be expressed as a percentage which would say that the probability is that the event was more or less severe is a given percent.

Many people are looking for a solid Yes or No to the question "was this event caused by global warming" but there is no true yes or no answer.  What attribution science tells us is that the probability that the event was made worse is X%.

For example, hurricane Harvey hit Texas in 2017 dropping an unprecedented amount of rain along the gulf coast.  This event was subject to attribution studies that showed the severity of the rain increased by at least 19% over what it would have been had greenhouse gas levels stayed as they were in the 1950s. 

Climate scientists have been telling us that the increased temperature caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases will likely make events like hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts more severe.  Attribution science when applied to such events is proving this to be true.  We need to take broad action to reduce fossil fuel usage or the world that our great grandchildren grow up in is going to be distinctly less pleasant than the world of today.